The Eagles opened Sunday night as 4.5 point favorites over the Commanders in the NFC Championship. The line went to 6 points, in less than two days.
Does it mean anything to the upcoming showdown, a rubber match between division rivals? No. But it is interesting to see how much of the first money has landed in Philly, to the point that the line was almost a touchdown.
Meanwhile, the AFC Championship is not moving at all, with the Chiefs giving the Bills 1.5 points.
For Commanders-Eagles, the key will be late movement, when the sharps declare their position. And a lot of that will depend on the truth about Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ left knee injury.
The Eagles will say as little as possible. Someone has to know the truth. People with a strong financial incentive to know the truth.
Think back to last year. Everyone knew Hurts had a left knee injury. Hell, he was wearing a brace. But the Eagles resisted acknowledging it on the injury report.
This year, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni “accidentally” revealed that Hurts had an undisclosed ankle injurybecause Sirianni has somehow confused one of his most important players with another.
Think 2022. The line for a Cowboys-Eagles game changed dramatically due to a then-unknown shoulder injury Hurts, from Dallas minus-1 to Dallas minus-6. (The Cowboys eventually won by six, 40-34, with Hurts not playing.)
Hurts the knee is the key. The early bet is quite possibly based on the notion that Hurts will be fine. Later in the week, as kickoff approaches, any line movement toward the underdog will likely say a lot more than anything the Eagles will put on their injury reports.